American Airlines Group Inc. AAL
Revenue Intelligence Report • 52 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
Revenue is anchored in core airline operations and passenger demand, with the latest quarterly revenue near $14B. The model implies a strong SG&A ROI, with $1 of SG&A spending generating $1.11 of long-run revenue. Holdout testing shows the forecast predicting $14B versus actual $14B (3.0% error), while overall MAPE is 15.7%, indicating moderate forecast accuracy. The FY revenue forecast is $54B, down 1.1% year over year, suggesting a modest negative growth path even as SG&A efficiency remains favorable.
Investment Thesis
At 15.7% MAPE, the model captures American Airlines Group Inc.'s broad revenue trajectory, though quarterly variability suggests sensitivity to external factors. Each $1 of SG&A spending generates $1.11 in revenue, reflecting strong commercial efficiency.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $14B | $14B | $11B – $16B | -0.6% | ✓ In range |
| Q2 2026 | $14B | $9.6B – $17B | +7.8% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $13B | $8.7B – $18B | -6.2% | ||
| Q4 2026 | $13B | $7.9B – $19B | -1.4% | ||
| Q1 2027 | $14B | $7.3B – $20B | -3.5% |
How Spending Drives Revenue
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