What is AAPL's forecasted revenue?

Apple Inc. is forecasted to generate $483.3B in next-four-quarter revenue, representing +3.5% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the AAPL revenue forecast model?

The model has 5.1% training MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $98B versus the actual $109B.

Apple Inc. AAPL

Revenue Intelligence Report • 73 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-27

Apple Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $109B for the period ending 2026-06-27. The model projects $483B across the next four quarters (+3.5% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 10.3%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-27. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters

$483.3B

+3.5% YoY

R&D Elasticity

-0.35x

SG&A Elasticity

1.19x

Training Fit

5.1% MAPE

Retrospective holdout (Q3 FY2026): The model predicted $98.14B vs the actual $109.42B — an error of 10.3%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

⚠ Model limitation: One or more estimated spending associations are negative. These observational coefficients do not establish a causal return on spending.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q3 FY2026 Period end 2026-06-27	$98.14B	$109.42B	$86.25B–$111.66B	+4.4%	✓ In range
Q4 FY2026 Period end 2026-09-27	$112.71B		$93.90B–$135.30B	+10.0%
Q1 FY2027 Period end 2026-12-27	$145.63B		$116.44B–$182.13B	+1.3%
Q2 FY2027 Period end 2027-03-27	$120.22B		$92.86B–$155.65B	+8.1%
Q3 FY2027 Period end 2027-06-27	$104.72B		$78.45B–$139.77B	-4.3%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Apple Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Oct–Dec)	0.9992	-0.1%	In line with trend	17
FQ2 (Jan–Mar)	0.9919	-0.8%	In line with trend	17
FQ3 (Apr–Jun)	0.998	-0.2%	In line with trend	17
FQ4 (Jul–Sep)	0.99	-1.0%	In line with trend	17

Spending and Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 73 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 3.1613x • R&D elasticity: -0.1582x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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