Aercap Holdings n.v. AER
Revenue Intelligence Report • 8 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
Aercap Holdings n.v. has a forecasted full-year revenue of $8.9B, a +19.7% year-over-year change, based on 8 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include SG&A (elasticity 0.58x). The ARDL model has 5.9% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
The econometric model achieves strong accuracy (5.9% MAPE), suggesting Aercap Holdings n.v.'s revenue trajectory is well-characterized by its spending patterns. Sales & marketing spend shows a 0.58x elasticity, suggesting effective go-to-market execution.
Next FY Revenue
$8.90B
+19.7% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
0.58x
Model Accuracy
5.9% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $1.9B vs the actual $1.9B — an error of 1.5%.
Note:
Aercap Holdings n.v. does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $1.9B | $1.9B | $1.7B – $2.2B | +55.5% | ✓ In range |
| Q2 2026 | $2.0B | $1.7B – $2.4B | +20.8% | ||
| Q2 2027 | $2.2B | $1.7B – $2.7B | +11.8% | ||
| Q2 2028 | $2.3B | $1.8B – $3.0B | +17.0% | ||
| Q2 2029 | $2.4B | $1.8B – $3.2B | +29.4% |
How Spending Drives Revenue
Reading this chart:
Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.
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