What is AFRM's forecasted revenue?

Affirm Holdings, Inc. is forecasted to generate $1.96B in next-four-quarter revenue, representing +35.9% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the AFRM revenue forecast model?

The model has 4.8% training MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $0.4B versus the actual $0.4B.

Affirm Holdings, Inc. AFRM

Revenue Intelligence Report • 27 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Affirm Holdings, Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $388M for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $2.0B across the next four quarters (+35.9% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 1.8%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters

$1.96B

+35.9% YoY

SG&A Elasticity

1.73x

Training Fit

4.8% MAPE

Retrospective holdout (Q4 FY2026): The model predicted $394.6M vs the actual $387.5M — an error of 1.8%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

Note: Affirm Holdings, Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q4 FY2026 Period end 2026-06-30	$394.6M	$387.5M	$351.1M–$443.6M	+28.7%	✓ In range
Q1 FY2027 Period end 2026-09-30	$405.3M		$343.6M–$478.2M	+26.5%
Q2 FY2027 Period end 2026-12-31	$532.5M		$434.9M–$652.0M	+32.7%
Q3 FY2027 Period end 2027-03-31	$479.6M		$379.6M–$605.9M	+43.4%
Q4 FY2027 Period end 2027-06-30	$545.6M		$420.1M–$708.7M	+40.8%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Affirm Holdings, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Jul–Sep)	1.0299	+3.0%	In line with trend	5
FQ2 (Oct–Dec)	1.0418	+4.2%	+4.2% above trend	6
FQ3 (Jan–Mar)	0.9865	-1.4%	In line with trend	6
FQ4 (Apr–Jun)	0.9922	-0.8%	In line with trend	5

Spending and Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 27 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 0.5896x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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