What is ALAB's forecasted revenue?

Astera Labs, Inc. is forecasted to generate $2.55B in next-four-quarter revenue, representing +111.9% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the ALAB revenue forecast model?

The model has 1.7% training MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $0.4B versus the actual $0.4B.

Astera Labs, Inc. ALAB

Revenue Intelligence Report • 14 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Astera Labs, Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $392M for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $2.5B across the next four quarters (+111.9% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 9.1%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters

$2.55B

+111.9% YoY

R&D Elasticity

1.30x

SG&A Elasticity

0.75x

Training Fit

1.7% MAPE

Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $428.1M vs the actual $392.4M — an error of 9.1%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q2 FY2026 Period end 2026-06-30	$428.1M	$392.4M	$409.6M–$447.5M	+123.1%	✗ Outside range
Q3 FY2026 Period end 2026-09-30	$476.0M		$447.1M–$506.8M	+106.5%
Q4 FY2026 Period end 2026-12-31	$544.6M		$504.4M–$588.1M	+101.3%
Q1 FY2027 Period end 2027-03-31	$645.3M		$590.6M–$705.1M	+109.3%
Q2 FY2027 Period end 2027-06-30	$881.2M		$798.0M–$972.9M	+124.6%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Astera Labs, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar)	0.9871	-1.3%	In line with trend	3
FQ2 (Apr–Jun)	0.9764	-2.4%	In line with trend	2
FQ3 (Jul–Sep)	1.0043	+0.4%	In line with trend	3
FQ4 (Oct–Dec)	1.0237	+2.4%	In line with trend	3

Spending and Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 14 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: -0.4515x • R&D elasticity: -0.8074x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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