What is AMP's forecasted revenue?

Ameriprise Financial, Inc. is forecasted to generate $18.6B in next-four-quarter revenue, representing -6.1% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the AMP revenue forecast model?

The model has 3.3% training MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $4.7B versus the actual $5.0B.

Ameriprise Financial, Inc. AMP

Revenue Intelligence Report • 73 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Ameriprise Financial, Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $5.0B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $18.6B across the next four quarters (-6.1% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses G&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 5.8%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and G&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters

$18.6B

-6.1% YoY

G&A Elasticity

1.68x

Training Fit

3.3% MAPE

Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $4.72B vs the actual $5.01B — an error of 5.8%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

Note: The current filings use G&A (GeneralAndAdministrativeExpense). Spending estimates refer to this expense measure, not separately reported SG&A.

Note: Ameriprise Financial, Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q2 FY2026 Period end 2026-06-30	$4.72B	$5.01B	$4.33B–$5.15B	+5.2%	✓ In range
Q3 FY2026 Period end 2026-09-30	$4.65B		$4.11B–$5.24B	-5.1%
Q4 FY2026 Period end 2026-12-31	$4.96B		$4.28B–$5.76B	-1.6%
Q1 FY2027 Period end 2027-03-31	$4.54B		$3.82B–$5.39B	-7.1%
Q2 FY2027 Period end 2027-06-30	$4.49B		$3.70B–$5.44B	-10.5%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Ameriprise Financial, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar)	1.0036	+0.4%	In line with trend	17
FQ2 (Apr–Jun)	1.0081	+0.8%	In line with trend	17
FQ3 (Jul–Sep)	1.0031	+0.3%	In line with trend	17
FQ4 (Oct–Dec)	0.9915	-0.9%	In line with trend	17

Spending and Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 73 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current G&A elasticity: 0.8888x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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