Aon Plc AON
Revenue Intelligence Report • 70 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
Revenue is primarily driven by disciplined SG&A investment, with the model implying each $1 of SG&A generates about $2.14 in long-run revenue. The latest quarterly revenue was $4.30B, and a holdout test predicted $4.60B versus actual $4.30B, a -6.3% error, with overall model accuracy around 5.5% MAPE. The FY forecast calls for roughly $20.0B in revenue, about +16% year over year, signaling solid top-line momentum. The SG&A ROI signal remains favorable for investors, though near-term predictions carry modest error risk.
Investment Thesis
The econometric model achieves strong accuracy (5.5% MAPE), suggesting Aon Plc's revenue trajectory is well-characterized by its spending patterns. Each $1 of SG&A spending generates $2.14 in revenue, reflecting strong commercial efficiency.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $4.6B | $4.3B | $4.2B – $5.0B | +10.2% | ✓ In range |
| Q2 2026 | $5.2B | $4.6B – $5.7B | +9.1% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $4.9B | $4.2B – $5.6B | +16.8% | ||
| Q4 2026 | $4.7B | $3.9B – $5.5B | +18.2% | ||
| Q1 2027 | $5.2B | $4.3B – $6.1B | +20.9% |
How Spending Drives Revenue
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