Arm Holdings Plc /Uk ARM
Revenue Intelligence Report • 11 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
Arm Holdings Plc /Uk has a forecasted full-year revenue of $5.7B, a +28.9% year-over-year change, based on 11 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include R&D (elasticity 1.31x) and SG&A (elasticity 0.94x). The ARDL model has 5.3% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
The econometric model achieves strong accuracy (5.3% MAPE), suggesting Arm Holdings Plc /Uk's revenue trajectory is well-characterized by its spending patterns. R&D investment shows a 1.31x multiplier — each 1% increase in R&D spend is associated with a 1.31% revenue increase, signaling strong innovation-to-revenue conversion. Sales & marketing spend shows a 0.94x elasticity, suggesting effective go-to-market execution.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $1.2B | $1.2B | $1.1B – $1.4B | +46.8% | ✓ In range |
| Q2 2026 | $1.3B | $1.1B – $1.5B | +31.3% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $1.4B | $1.1B – $1.7B | +30.4% | ||
| Q4 2026 | $1.5B | $1.2B – $1.8B | +29.0% | ||
| Q1 2027 | $1.6B | $1.2B – $2.0B | +25.6% |
How Spending Drives Revenue
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