What is ATI's forecasted revenue?

Ati Inc. is forecasted to generate $4.85B in next-four-quarter revenue, representing +2.8% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the ATI revenue forecast model?

The model has 2.0% training MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $1.2B versus the actual $1.3B.

Ati Inc. ATI

Revenue Intelligence Report • 12 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-28

Ati Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $1.3B for the period ending 2026-06-28. The model projects $4.8B across the next four quarters (+2.8% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 6.1%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The GAM forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-28. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters

$4.85B

+2.8% YoY

SG&A Multiplier

$6.78 per $1

Training Fit

2.0% MAPE

Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $1.18B vs the actual $1.26B — an error of 6.1%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

Note: Ati Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q2 FY2026 Period end 2026-06-28	$1.18B	$1.26B	$1.10B–$1.28B	+3.8%	✓ In range
Q3 FY2026 Period end 2026-09-28	$1.20B		$1.09B–$1.31B	+6.2%
Q4 FY2026 Period end 2026-12-28	$1.20B		$1.06B–$1.37B	+2.3%
Q1 FY2027 Period end 2027-03-28	$1.22B		$1.11B–$1.34B	+5.7%
Q2 FY2027 Period end 2027-06-28	$1.23B		$1.12B–$1.35B	-2.5%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Ati Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar)	0.9821	-1.8%	In line with trend	3
FQ2 (Apr–Jun)	1.0074	+0.7%	In line with trend	2
FQ3 (Jul–Sep)	0.9779	-2.2%	In line with trend	3
FQ4 (Oct–Dec)	1.0098	+1.0%	In line with trend	3

Spending and Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association per $1 of spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 12 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 0.0112x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

Enhanced forecast: The time-varying model (GAM) was selected using training fit, before evaluating the withheld quarter. Its holdout error is -6.1%.

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