Atmos Energy Corp ATO
Revenue Intelligence Report • 20 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
Atmos Energy Corp has a forecasted full-year revenue of $2.8B, a -1.0% year-over-year change, based on 20 quarters of SEC filing data. The ARDL model has 6.3% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
The econometric model achieves strong accuracy (6.3% MAPE), suggesting Atmos Energy Corp's revenue trajectory is well-characterized by its spending patterns.
Next FY Revenue
$2.77B
-1.0% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
-2.34x
Model Accuracy
6.3% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $0.8B vs the actual $0.8B — an error of 7.5%.
⚠ Model limitation:
This company shows negative spending multipliers, meaning increases in spending have not directly translated into revenue growth. This typically occurs with commodity-driven companies or hypergrowth companies.
Note:
Atmos Energy Corp does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2016 | $0.8B | $0.8B | $0.7B – $1.0B | +84.1% | ✓ In range |
| Q4 2016 | $0.9B | $0.7B – $1.1B | +28.3% | ||
| Q1 2017 | $0.5B | $0.4B – $0.7B | -38.8% | ||
| Q2 2017 | $0.7B | $0.5B – $1.0B | +57.4% | ||
| Q3 2017 | $0.6B | $0.5B – $0.9B | -17.2% |
How Spending Drives Revenue
Reading this chart:
Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.
Want this analysis for your portfolio?
I build custom revenue intelligence reports for investors and companies using SEC filing data, econometric modeling, and AI-powered insights.
Get in Touch