American Water Works Company, Inc. AWK
Revenue Intelligence Report • 66 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
American Water Works Company, Inc. has a forecasted full-year revenue of $5.6B, a +8.8% year-over-year change, based on 66 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include SG&A (elasticity 0.94x). The ARDL model achieves strong accuracy at 2.9% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
Our ARDL model tracks American Water Works Company, Inc.'s revenue with exceptional precision (2.9% MAPE), indicating highly predictable cash flows. Sales & marketing spend shows a 0.94x elasticity, suggesting effective go-to-market execution.
Next FY Revenue
$5.58B
+8.8% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
0.94x
Model Accuracy
2.9% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $1.3B vs the actual $1.3B — an error of 1.8%.
Note:
American Water Works Company, Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $1.3B | $1.3B | $1.2B – $1.4B | +7.7% | ✓ In range |
| Q2 2026 | $1.2B | $1.1B – $1.4B | +8.9% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $1.4B | $1.2B – $1.6B | +10.8% | ||
| Q4 2026 | $1.5B | $1.3B – $1.8B | +5.6% | ||
| Q1 2027 | $1.4B | $1.2B – $1.6B | +10.1% |
How Spending Drives Revenue
Reading this chart:
Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.
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