American Express Co AXP
Revenue Intelligence Report • 70 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
American Express Co has a forecasted full-year revenue of $49B, a +19.1% year-over-year change, based on 70 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include SG&A (elasticity 1.64x). The ARDL model has 9.5% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
At 9.5% MAPE, the model captures American Express Co's broad revenue trajectory, though quarterly variability suggests sensitivity to external factors. Sales & marketing spend shows a 1.64x elasticity, suggesting effective go-to-market execution.
Next FY Revenue
$49.2B
+19.1% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
1.64x
Model Accuracy
9.5% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $11B vs the actual $11B — an error of 0.9%.
Note:
American Express Co does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $11B | $11B | $8.0B – $15B | +10.9% | ✓ In range |
| Q2 2026 | $12B | $7.3B – $18B | +19.7% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $12B | $6.8B – $21B | +16.4% | ||
| Q4 2026 | $13B | $6.6B – $24B | +20.5% | ||
| Q1 2027 | $13B | $6.3B – $27B | +19.7% |
How Spending Drives Revenue
Reading this chart:
Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.
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