What is BE's forecasted revenue?

Bloom Energy Corporation is forecasted to generate $4.65B in next-four-quarter revenue, representing +91.5% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the BE revenue forecast model?

The model has 9.9% training MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $0.6B versus the actual $0.7B.

Bloom Energy Corporation BE

Revenue Intelligence Report • 37 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-03-31

Bloom Energy Corporation's latest quarterly revenue is $746M for the period ending 2026-03-31. The model projects $4.7B across the next four quarters (+91.5% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 13.5%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-03-31. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters

$4.65B

+91.5% YoY

R&D Elasticity

-9.95x

SG&A Elasticity

-4.63x

Training Fit

9.9% MAPE

Retrospective holdout (Q1 FY2026): The model predicted $645.4M vs the actual $746.4M — an error of 13.5%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

⚠ Model limitation: One or more estimated spending associations are negative. These observational coefficients do not establish a causal return on spending.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q1 FY2026 Period end 2026-03-31	$645.4M	$746.4M	$505.1M–$824.8M	+102.2%	✓ In range
Q2 FY2026 Period end 2026-06-30	$971.3M		$686.7M–$1.37B	+145.1%
Q3 FY2026 Period end 2026-09-30	$1.02B		$665.1M–$1.56B	+98.1%
Q4 FY2026 Period end 2026-12-31	$1.24B		$757.4M–$2.02B	+60.0%
Q1 FY2027 Period end 2027-03-31	$1.43B		$824.8M–$2.47B	+91.2%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Bloom Energy Corporation's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar)	0.987	-1.3%	In line with trend	8
FQ2 (Apr–Jun)	0.9995	-0.1%	In line with trend	8
FQ3 (Jul–Sep)	0.9465	-5.3%	-5.3% below trend	8
FQ4 (Oct–Dec)	1.0222	+2.2%	In line with trend	8

Spending and Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 37 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 1.6723x • R&D elasticity: -1.2887x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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