Box, Inc.

Module 2 of 5

2 · Cost model

Operating costs include cost of revenue plus operating expenses. Their growth responds to simulated revenue growth, recent cost trends and the quarter of the year. Adjusted costs equal revenue less company-reported adjusted operating income.

Open full-size chart. Last 12 reported quarters are plotted; all 19 aligned quarters appear below. The vertical line separates reported history from model predictions. Historical model points use earlier quarters only. Shaded ranges are conditional simulations and have not been calibrated to real-world probabilities.

Next target: 2026-10-31

Four-quarter predictions

Module 3 of 5

3 · Earnings model

Each path subtracts operating costs from revenue, then adds the modeled bridge for other income, taxes and common-stockholder deductions. The result is earnings available to common stockholders—the numerator required for EPS.

Adjusted tax accounting changed in FY2026: the company used a 26.8% projected rate, then 25% in FY2027. The adjusted earnings bridge fits the six observed quarters under normalized tax accounting, removes their stated rate and applies the latest 25% rate. Preferred dividends and allocations are included in common earnings; total net income alone would overstate EPS. Company reconciliation and tax policy.

Open full-size chart. Last 12 reported quarters are plotted; all 19 aligned quarters appear below. The vertical line separates reported history from model predictions. Historical model points use earlier quarters only. Shaded ranges are conditional simulations and have not been calibrated to real-world probabilities.

Next target: 2026-10-31

Four-quarter predictions

Module 4 of 5

4 · Share count model

Weighted-average shares follow a recent trend with uncertainty; potential dilution is modeled separately. Profitable paths use diluted shares. Loss paths use basic shares to avoid treating anti-dilutive securities as EPS dilution. Buybacks, stock compensation and issuance enter through reported share history.

Open full-size chart. Last 12 reported quarters are plotted; all 19 aligned quarters appear below. The vertical line separates reported history from model predictions. Historical model points use earlier quarters only. Shaded ranges are conditional simulations and have not been calibrated to real-world probabilities. The chart shows basic and adjusted diluted shares; the tables also show GAAP diluted shares.

Next target: 2026-10-31

Four-quarter predictions

Module 5 of 5

5 · EPS model

For every simulated path, EPS equals common earnings divided by the matching weighted-average share count. Revenue, costs, below-operating-income items and shares therefore feed the same EPS distribution. GAAP and adjusted measures remain separate.

Open full-size chart. Last 12 reported quarters are plotted; all 19 aligned quarters appear below. The vertical line separates reported history from model predictions. Historical model points use earlier quarters only. Shaded ranges are conditional simulations and have not been calibrated to real-world probabilities.

Next target: 2026-10-31

The vendor separates reported EPS from GAAP EPS. Its recent reported EPS reconciles to the company’s adjusted measure; the upcoming consensus is compared on that basis. Analyst source.

Conditional surprise scenarios

These percentages are model scenarios, not calibrated odds. Adjusted EPS: model MAE $0.068, last-quarter baseline MAE $0.076; the nominal 80% range covered 3/7 outcomes. These are reconstructed checks, not archived live forecasts. The adjusted EPS median is $0.059 above consensus, smaller than the $0.068 average absolute one-quarter model error. Consensus sits inside the 80% model range. With only seven historical checks, this does not establish a reliable beat or miss signal.

What would erase the modeled upside?

At consensus EPS, the median break-even adjusted operating-cost level across the simulated revenue, earnings-bridge and share paths is $239.9M, versus a cost-model median of $231.5M. The median cost headroom is $8.3M. Replacing next-quarter revenue with analyst consensus and rerunning the linked cost response produces a conditional adjusted EPS median of $0.44.

Four-quarter predictions

Analysts, realized surprises and market context

Last closing share price: $41.95 on 2026-11-06. Historical market prices.

No verified current event-window options quote is available. Market-implied EPS is not identifiable from the share price or an options move alone. No directional market EPS forecast is presented. An earnings beat can accompany a falling share price when guidance, valuation or other news dominates.

Historical analyst estimates, retrieved 2026-11-08; reported actuals checked against linked company releases. Returns use the release-date close and the next trading close, exclude dividends, and do not isolate the earnings effect. Historical expectations can be revised by the vendor. Unlisted historical consensus quarters are unavailable in the accessible vendor table; they are left blank.

Does the linked model improve predictions?

Adjusted EPS: model MAE $0.068, last-quarter baseline MAE $0.076; the nominal 80% range covered 3/7 outcomes. These are reconstructed checks, not archived live forecasts. Compare mean absolute error (MAE) with carrying forward the last reported value and with the same quarter a year earlier. Lower is better. The model is not consistently superior across measures and horizons.

Model and source notes

The revenue module supplies 6,000 simulated paths. Accounting equations fit 19 aligned quarters with recency weighting (four-quarter half-life), regularization and robust residuals. The accounting layer uses approximate Gaussian parameter uncertainty and correlated Student-t shocks; it is not a second fully Bayesian fit.

Costs use log changes, revenue growth and seasonal terms. The earnings bridge models other income, taxes and common-stockholder deductions as a share of revenue. Stated normalized tax rates anchor the adjusted bridge after adoption; only rates already observed at each cutoff are used. Future tax rates, financing and acquisitions can differ.

Share growth is modeled on a log scale, with a separate nonnegative dilution premium. Forecast medians of individual components need not add or divide to the median EPS; accounting identities hold on every individual path.

Seven expanding historical origins train on earlier quarters only and produce 22 outcomes across one to four quarters. Revenue is refitted at each origin. Latest filing revisions and reconciled release data remain in history, and model choices were reviewed using these results: this is retrospective validation, not an untouched holdout or point-in-time trading test.

80% and 95% ranges are central pointwise simulation ranges. Small, overlapping backtests do not calibrate them. Surprise percentages are conditional simulation fractions, not demonstrated real-world probabilities. A beat means more than $0.01 above consensus; a miss means more than $0.01 below. Everything within ±$0.01 is treated as in line.

Analyst consensus is shown only where the target period and EPS basis can be aligned. No verified analyst cost, common-earnings or share-count forecasts were located; unavailable values stay blank. Management-derived values are scenarios, not independent analyst consensus. Forecast horizons beyond the next quarter have no verified comparable consensus.

Historical consensus is the vendor’s retrospective table retrieved November 8, 2026, not our own archive of pre-release estimates. Vendor actual adjusted EPS and revenue are checked against company releases. Historical share returns run from the release-date close to the following trading close; they are realized market context, not a prediction or an isolated earnings effect.

Revenue, EPS, diluted shares and operating margins are company guidance. Costs are derived from revenue × (1 − operating margin); common earnings are EPS × assumed shares, using rounded guidance. These are illustrative implications, not separately issued forecasts. Company outlook and reconciliation.

Computed 2026-11-08 · 6000 simulated paths · 19 accounting quarters through 2026-07-31 · model version linked-accounting-v2-2026-11-08. Figures are frozen to this research vintage.