Brown & Brown, Inc. BRO
Revenue Intelligence Report • 61 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
Revenue is driven by SG&A spending, with an elasticity of 0.81 (a 1% increase in SG&A yields about 0.81% higher revenue) under a log-log framework. The model, trained on 61 quarters of data, shows 2.5% MAPE accuracy and a holdout forecast of about $1.2B with actuals of $1.2B, delivering only 0.3% error. The FY revenue forecast is $5.3B, up 13.6% year over year, signaling a solid growth trajectory. Overall, SG&A provides positive but diminishing returns, and the model-backed outlook supports a constructive near-term path for investors.
Investment Thesis
Our ARDL model tracks Brown & Brown, Inc.'s revenue with exceptional precision (2.5% MAPE), indicating highly predictable cash flows. Sales & marketing spend shows a 0.81x elasticity, suggesting effective go-to-market execution.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2024 | $1.2B | $1.2B | $1.1B – $1.3B | +10.7% | ✓ In range |
| Q4 2024 | $1.3B | $1.2B – $1.4B | +24.1% | ||
| Q2 2025 | $1.3B | $1.2B – $1.5B | +5.7% | ||
| Q3 2025 | $1.3B | $1.2B – $1.5B | +13.0% | ||
| Q4 2025 | $1.3B | $1.2B – $1.5B | +13.3% |
How Spending Drives Revenue
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