What is BURL's forecasted revenue?

Burlington Stores, Inc. is forecasted to generate $10.9B in FY revenue, representing -2.8% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the BURL revenue forecast model?

The ARDL model achieves 5.9% MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $2.6B versus the actual $2.7B.

Burlington Stores, Inc. BURL

Revenue Intelligence Report • 52 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15

Revenue is driven primarily by SG&A spending efficiency, with each $1 of SG&A generating about $6.51 in long-run revenue, and no R&D input factored into the driver set. The latest quarterly revenue is $2,710 million, supported by 52 quarters of data underpinning the linear model. Holdout testing produced a predicted $2.6B versus actual $2.7B (2.9% error), with an overall model accuracy of 5.9% MAPE. The FY forecast calls for about $11B in revenue, a decline of 2.8% year over year, suggesting a modest near-term headwind despite the favorable SG&A ROI.

Investment Thesis

The econometric model achieves strong accuracy (5.9% MAPE), suggesting Burlington Stores, Inc.'s revenue trajectory is well-characterized by its spending patterns. Each $1 of SG&A spending generates $6.51 in revenue, reflecting strong commercial efficiency.

Next FY Revenue

$10.9B

-2.8% YoY

SG&A Multiplier

$6.51 per $1

Model Accuracy

5.9% MAPE

Holdout validation: The model predicted $2.6B vs the actual $2.7B — an error of 2.9%.

Note: Burlington Stores, Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q4 2025	$2.6B	$2.7B	$2.4B – $2.9B	+4.0%	✓ In range
Q1 2026	$2.9B		$2.5B – $3.2B	-12.6%
Q2 2026	$2.6B		$2.2B – $3.1B	+5.1%
Q3 2026	$2.7B		$2.2B – $3.2B	+0.8%
Q4 2026	$2.7B		$2.1B – $3.2B	-1.9%

How Spending Drives Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue generated per $1 spent over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments mature.

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