What is BURL's forecasted revenue?

Burlington Stores, Inc. is forecasted to generate $13.8B in next-four-quarter revenue, representing +13.2% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the BURL revenue forecast model?

The model has 5.9% training MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $3.3B versus the actual $3.0B.

Burlington Stores, Inc. BURL

Revenue Intelligence Report • 54 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-08-01

Burlington Stores, Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $3.0B for the period ending 2026-08-01. The model projects $13.8B across the next four quarters (+13.2% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 9.8%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-08-01. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters

$13.8B

+13.2% YoY

SG&A Multiplier

$7.82 per $1

Training Fit

5.9% MAPE

Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2027): The model predicted $3.29B vs the actual $3.00B — an error of 9.8%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

Note: Burlington Stores, Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q2 FY2027 Period end 2026-08-01	$3.29B	$3.00B	$3.04B–$3.54B	+21.8%	✗ Outside range
Q3 FY2027 Period end 2026-11-01	$2.94B		$2.59B–$3.29B	+8.8%
Q4 FY2027 Period end 2027-02-01	$3.93B		$3.51B–$4.36B	+8.0%
Q1 FY2028 Period end 2027-05-01	$3.23B		$2.73B–$3.72B	+13.2%
Q2 FY2028 Period end 2027-08-01	$3.70B		$3.15B–$4.25B	+23.5%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Burlington Stores, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Mar–May)	1.0063	+0.6%	In line with trend	13
FQ2 (Jun–Aug)	1.0253	+2.5%	In line with trend	12
FQ3 (Sep–Nov)	0.966	-3.4%	-3.4% below trend	12
FQ4 (Dec–Feb)	1.0425	+4.2%	+4.2% above trend	12

Spending and Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association per $1 of spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 54 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 2.8252x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

Want this analysis for your portfolio?

I build custom revenue intelligence reports for investors and companies using SEC filing data, econometric modeling, and AI-powered insights.

Get in Touch