Casey's General Stores, Inc. CASY
Revenue Intelligence Report • 51 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
Casey's General Stores, Inc. has a forecasted full-year revenue of $20B, a +17.0% year-over-year change, based on 51 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include SG&A (elasticity 1.12x). The ARDL model achieves strong accuracy at 4.3% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
The econometric model achieves strong accuracy (4.3% MAPE), suggesting Casey's General Stores, Inc.'s revenue trajectory is well-characterized by its spending patterns. Sales & marketing spend shows a 1.12x elasticity, suggesting effective go-to-market execution.
Next FY Revenue
$19.8B
+17.0% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
1.12x
Model Accuracy
4.3% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $4.4B vs the actual $3.9B — an error of 13.4%.
Note:
Casey's General Stores, Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | $4.4B | $3.9B | $4.0B – $5.0B | +12.6% | ✗ Outside range |
| Q2 2026 | $4.8B | $4.1B – $5.6B | +22.4% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $4.8B | $4.0B – $5.9B | +6.0% | ||
| Q4 2026 | $4.9B | $4.0B – $6.1B | +9.6% | ||
| Q1 2027 | $5.2B | $4.1B – $6.7B | +33.0% |
How Spending Drives Revenue
Reading this chart:
Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.
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