Chubb Limited CB

Revenue Intelligence Report • 61 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-03-31

Chubb Limited's latest quarterly revenue is $14.8B for the period ending 2026-03-31. The model projects $65.7B across the next four quarters (+8.0% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses G&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 2.0%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The GAM forecast is based on reported revenue and G&A data through 2026-03-31. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$65.7B
+8.0% YoY
G&A Multiplier
$17.19 per $1
Training Fit
4.3% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q1 FY2026): The model predicted $15.07B vs the actual $14.77B — an error of 2.0%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
Note: The current filings use G&A (GeneralAndAdministrativeExpense). Spending estimates refer to this expense measure, not separately reported SG&A.
Note: Chubb Limited does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

CB Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q1 FY2026
Period end 2026-03-31		 $15.07B $14.77B $12.82B–$17.71B +12.8% ✓ In range
Q2 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-30		 $16.00B $13.36B–$19.16B +7.9%
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-09-30		 $16.41B $13.32B–$20.21B +1.6%
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-12-31		 $17.00B $13.37B–$21.61B +12.8%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-31		 $16.29B $12.36B–$21.47B +10.3%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Chubb Limited's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar) 0.9732 -2.7% In line with trend 15
FQ2 (Apr–Jun) 0.991 -0.9% In line with trend 15
FQ3 (Jul–Sep) 1.0649 +6.5% +6.5% above trend 15
FQ4 (Oct–Dec) 0.9727 -2.7% In line with trend 15

Spending and Revenue

CB Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association per $1 of spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 61 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current G&A elasticity: 1.1983x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.
Enhanced forecast: The time-varying model (GAM) was selected using training fit, before evaluating the withheld quarter. Its holdout error is 2.0%.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: GAM; spending associations: ARDL (linear) with 61 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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