Citizens Financial Group Inc/Ri CFG

Revenue Intelligence Report • 52 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Citizens Financial Group Inc/Ri's latest quarterly revenue is $451M for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $1.8B across the next four quarters (+0.6% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses Operating expense proxy data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 4.7%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The GAM forecast is based on reported revenue and Operating expense proxy data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$1.76B
+0.6% YoY
Operating expense proxy Elasticity
0.15x
Training Fit
20.0% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $429.7M vs the actual $451.0M — an error of 4.7%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
Note: The current filings use Operating expense proxy (NoninterestExpense). Spending estimates refer to this expense measure, not separately reported SG&A.
Note: Citizens Financial Group Inc/Ri does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

CFG Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q2 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-30		 $429.7M $451.0M $189.1M–$976.3M +12.2% ✓ In range
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-09-30		 $434.1M $179.2M–$1.05B -4.0%
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-12-31		 $440.3M $169.1M–$1.15B +1.7%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-31		 $438.3M $153.4M–$1.25B +5.6%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2027-06-30		 $449.7M $145.7M–$1.39B -0.3%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Citizens Financial Group Inc/Ri's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar) 0.9652 -3.5% -3.5% below trend 13
FQ2 (Apr–Jun) 0.9492 -5.1% -5.1% below trend 12
FQ3 (Jul–Sep) 0.9482 -5.2% -5.2% below trend 13
FQ4 (Oct–Dec) 1.0371 +3.7% +3.7% above trend 13

Spending and Revenue

CFG Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 52 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current Operating expense proxy elasticity: -0.7338x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.
Enhanced forecast: The time-varying model (GAM) was selected using training fit, before evaluating the withheld quarter. Its holdout error is -4.7%.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: GAM; spending associations: ARDL (log-log) with 52 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.