Carlyle Group Inc. CG
Revenue Intelligence Report • 49 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
Carlyle Group Inc. has a forecasted full-year revenue of $2.0B, a -47.3% year-over-year change, based on 49 quarters of SEC filing data. The ARDL model has 50.4% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
At 50.4% MAPE, the model captures Carlyle Group Inc.'s broad revenue trajectory, though quarterly variability suggests sensitivity to external factors.
Next FY Revenue
$1.96B
-47.3% YoY
SG&A Multiplier
$-8.35 per $1
Model Accuracy
50.4% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $0.7B vs the actual $0.9B — an error of 23.8%.
⚠ Model limitation:
This company shows negative spending multipliers, meaning increases in spending have not directly translated into revenue growth. This typically occurs with commodity-driven companies or hypergrowth companies.
Note:
Carlyle Group Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.
Investor insight:
Actual revenue ($0.9B) came in 24% above the spending-based forecast ($0.7B). This suggests that Carlyle Group Inc.'s recent revenue growth is driven significantly by external demand factors — such as market pricing, product cycle tailwinds, or structural demand shifts — beyond what its R&D and SG&A spending alone would predict.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2023 | $0.7B | $0.9B | $-0.2B – $1.5B | -58.6% | ✓ In range |
| Q3 2023 | $0.7B | $-0.6B – $1.9B | -38.0% | ||
| Q4 2023 | $0.5B | $-1.0B – $2.1B | -51.9% | ||
| Q1 2024 | $0.4B | $-1.4B – $2.2B | -40.3% | ||
| Q2 2024 | $0.4B | $-1.6B – $2.3B | -58.8% |
How Spending Drives Revenue
Reading this chart:
Each line shows the cumulative revenue generated per $1 spent over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments mature.
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