What is CME's forecasted revenue?

Cme Group Inc. is forecasted to generate $6.94B in FY revenue, representing +6.4% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the CME revenue forecast model?

The ARDL model achieves 5.8% MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $1.6B versus the actual $1.6B.

Cme Group Inc. CME

Revenue Intelligence Report • 70 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15

Revenue is driven by efficient SG&A spend, with every $1 of SG&A generating $2.53 of long-run revenue, indicating strong cost leverage underpinning topline growth. The model is linear and well-validated, with a 5.8% MAPE and a holdout test that predicted $1.6B versus actual $1.6B (0.5% error). Latest quarterly revenue was $1.649B, and the FY forecast is $6.9B, up 6.4% year over year. The ongoing SG&A ROI supports a constructive outlook with stable, mid-single-digit top-line growth and durable revenue expansion.

Investment Thesis

The econometric model achieves strong accuracy (5.8% MAPE), suggesting Cme Group Inc.'s revenue trajectory is well-characterized by its spending patterns. Each $1 of SG&A spending generates $2.53 in revenue, reflecting strong commercial efficiency.

Next FY Revenue

$6.94B

+6.4% YoY

SG&A Multiplier

$2.53 per $1

Model Accuracy

5.8% MAPE

Holdout validation: The model predicted $1.6B vs the actual $1.6B — an error of 0.5%.

Note: Cme Group Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q4 2025	$1.6B	$1.6B	$1.5B – $1.8B	+7.5%	✓ In range
Q2 2026	$1.8B		$1.5B – $2.0B	+6.7%
Q3 2026	$1.7B		$1.4B – $2.0B	+1.7%
Q4 2026	$1.7B		$1.4B – $2.0B	+10.4%
Q1 2027	$1.8B		$1.4B – $2.1B	+7.4%

How Spending Drives Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue generated per $1 spent over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments mature.

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