Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. CMG
Revenue Intelligence Report • 36 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. has a forecasted full-year revenue of $12B, a +2.0% year-over-year change, based on 36 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include SG&A ($17.06 per $1). The ARDL model achieves strong accuracy at 2.4% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
Our ARDL model tracks Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.'s revenue with exceptional precision (2.4% MAPE), indicating highly predictable cash flows. Each $1 of SG&A spending generates $17.06 in revenue, reflecting strong commercial efficiency.
Next FY Revenue
$12.2B
+2.0% YoY
SG&A Multiplier
$17.06 per $1
Model Accuracy
2.4% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $3.0B vs the actual $3.0B — an error of 0.8%.
Note:
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $3.0B | $3.0B | $2.8B – $3.1B | +4.0% | ✓ In range |
| Q2 2026 | $3.0B | $2.8B – $3.1B | +4.0% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $3.1B | $2.9B – $3.3B | +0.3% | ||
| Q4 2026 | $3.1B | $2.9B – $3.3B | +2.5% | ||
| Q1 2027 | $3.0B | $2.8B – $3.3B | +1.3% |
How Spending Drives Revenue
Reading this chart:
Each line shows the cumulative revenue generated per $1 spent over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments mature.
Want this analysis for your portfolio?
I build custom revenue intelligence reports for investors and companies using SEC filing data, econometric modeling, and AI-powered insights.
Get in Touch