What is CMG's forecasted revenue?

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. is forecasted to generate $13.1B in next-four-quarter revenue, representing +5.7% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the CMG revenue forecast model?

The model has 2.4% training MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $3.2B versus the actual $3.3B.

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. CMG

Revenue Intelligence Report • 38 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $3.3B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $13.1B across the next four quarters (+5.7% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses G&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 3.7%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and G&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters

$13.1B

+5.7% YoY

G&A Multiplier

$17.03 per $1

Training Fit

2.4% MAPE

Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $3.22B vs the actual $3.35B — an error of 3.7%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

Note: The current filings use G&A (GeneralAndAdministrativeExpense). Spending estimates refer to this expense measure, not separately reported SG&A.

Note: Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q2 FY2026 Period end 2026-06-30	$3.22B	$3.35B	$3.11B–$3.34B	+5.3%	✗ Outside range
Q3 FY2026 Period end 2026-09-30	$3.23B		$3.07B–$3.39B	+7.4%
Q4 FY2026 Period end 2026-12-31	$3.19B		$3.00B–$3.39B	+7.1%
Q1 FY2027 Period end 2027-03-31	$3.30B		$3.08B–$3.53B	+6.9%
Q2 FY2027 Period end 2027-06-30	$3.41B		$3.15B–$3.66B	+1.7%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar)	0.9885	-1.1%	In line with trend	9
FQ2 (Apr–Jun)	1.0286	+2.9%	In line with trend	8
FQ3 (Jul–Sep)	0.9929	-0.7%	In line with trend	8
FQ4 (Oct–Dec)	1.0006	+0.1%	In line with trend	8

Spending and Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association per $1 of spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 38 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current G&A elasticity: 0.0937x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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