Capital one financial corp COF
Revenue Intelligence Report • 70 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
Capital one financial corp has a forecasted full-year revenue of $70B, a +31.8% year-over-year change, based on 70 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include SG&A (elasticity 1.17x). The ARDL model achieves strong accuracy at 4.7% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
The econometric model achieves strong accuracy (4.7% MAPE), suggesting Capital one financial corp's revenue trajectory is well-characterized by its spending patterns. Sales & marketing spend shows a 1.17x elasticity, suggesting effective go-to-market execution.
Next FY Revenue
$70.4B
+31.8% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
1.17x
Model Accuracy
4.7% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $14B vs the actual $16B — an error of 8.3%.
Note:
Capital one financial corp does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $14B | $16B | $13B – $16B | +40.3% | ✓ In range |
| Q2 2026 | $16B | $13B – $19B | +56.3% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $18B | $15B – $23B | +46.9% | ||
| Q4 2026 | $18B | $14B – $23B | +15.2% | ||
| Q1 2027 | $19B | $14B – $25B | +20.5% |
How Spending Drives Revenue
Reading this chart:
Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.
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