What is COHR's forecasted revenue?

Coherent Corp. is forecasted to generate $6.86B in FY revenue, representing +10.6% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the COHR revenue forecast model?

The ARDL model achieves 4.2% MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $1.6B versus the actual $1.7B.

Coherent Corp. COHR

Revenue Intelligence Report • 62 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15

Coherent Corp. has a forecasted full-year revenue of $6.9B, a +10.6% year-over-year change, based on 62 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include R&D ($6.22 per $1) and SG&A ($6.44 per $1). The ARDL model achieves strong accuracy at 4.2% MAPE.

Investment Thesis

The econometric model achieves strong accuracy (4.2% MAPE), suggesting Coherent Corp.'s revenue trajectory is well-characterized by its spending patterns. Every $1 of R&D investment is associated with $6.22 of revenue, indicating efficient capital deployment in innovation. Each $1 of SG&A spending generates $6.44 in revenue, reflecting strong commercial efficiency.

Next FY Revenue

$6.86B

+10.6% YoY

R&D Multiplier

$6.22 per $1

SG&A Multiplier

$6.44 per $1

Model Accuracy

4.2% MAPE

Holdout validation: The model predicted $1.6B vs the actual $1.7B — an error of 4.8%.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q4 2025	$1.6B	$1.7B	$1.6B – $1.6B	+19.0%	✗ Outside range
Q2 2026	$1.6B		$1.6B – $1.7B	+14.3%
Q3 2026	$1.7B		$1.6B – $1.8B	+12.2%
Q4 2026	$1.7B		$1.7B – $1.8B	+10.4%
Q1 2027	$1.8B		$1.7B – $1.9B	+6.3%

How Spending Drives Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue generated per $1 spent over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments mature.

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