What is COHR's forecasted revenue?

Coherent Corp. is forecasted to generate $8.25B in next-four-quarter revenue, representing +15.8% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the COHR revenue forecast model?

The model has 4.5% training MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $1.9B versus the actual $2.0B.

Coherent Corp. COHR

Revenue Intelligence Report • 68 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Coherent Corp.'s latest quarterly revenue is $2.0B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $8.2B across the next four quarters (+15.8% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 9.4%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters

$8.25B

+15.8% YoY

R&D Multiplier

$10.58 per $1

SG&A Multiplier

$6.07 per $1

Training Fit

4.5% MAPE

Retrospective holdout (Q4 FY2026): The model predicted $1.85B vs the actual $2.05B — an error of 9.4%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q4 FY2026 Period end 2026-06-30	$1.85B	$2.05B	$1.81B–$1.90B	+21.2%	✗ Outside range
Q1 FY2027 Period end 2026-09-30	$1.89B		$1.83B–$1.96B	+19.8%
Q2 FY2027 Period end 2026-12-31	$2.00B		$1.92B–$2.08B	+18.5%
Q3 FY2027 Period end 2027-03-31	$2.15B		$2.05B–$2.24B	+18.9%
Q4 FY2027 Period end 2027-06-30	$2.21B		$2.10B–$2.31B	+7.9%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Coherent Corp.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Jul–Sep)	0.9652	-3.5%	-3.5% below trend	16
FQ2 (Oct–Dec)	1.0173	+1.7%	In line with trend	16
FQ3 (Jan–Mar)	0.9972	-0.3%	In line with trend	16
FQ4 (Apr–Jun)	1.0324	+3.2%	+3.2% above trend	15

Spending and Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association per $1 of spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 68 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 0.0089x • R&D elasticity: 0.6437x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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