Costco Wholesale Corp /New COST

Revenue Intelligence Report • 72 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-08-30

Costco Wholesale Corp /New's latest quarterly revenue is $95.7B for the period ending 2026-08-30. The model projects $341B across the next four quarters (+12.4% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 2.3%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-08-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$340.7B
+12.4% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
1.09x
Training Fit
1.4% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q4 FY2026): The model predicted $97.88B vs the actual $95.72B — an error of 2.3%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
Note: Costco Wholesale Corp /New does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

COST Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-08-30		 $97.88B $95.72B $94.22B–$101.68B +13.6% ✓ In range
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2026-11-30		 $76.67B $72.65B–$80.91B +13.9%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2027-02-28		 $78.59B $73.57B–$83.94B +12.9%
Q3 FY2027
Period end 2027-05-30		 $77.43B $71.76B–$83.56B +9.8%
Q4 FY2027
Period end 2027-08-30		 $107.96B $99.15B–$117.55B +12.8%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Costco Wholesale Corp /New's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Sep–Nov) 0.9965 -0.4% In line with trend 17
FQ2 (Dec–Feb) 0.9985 -0.1% In line with trend 17
FQ3 (Mar–May) 1.0038 +0.4% In line with trend 18
FQ4 (Jun–Aug) 0.9992 -0.1% In line with trend 17

Spending and Revenue

COST Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 72 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 1.0452x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: ARDL; spending associations: ARDL (log-log) with 72 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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