What is CPAY's forecasted revenue?

Corpay, Inc. is forecasted to generate $6.33B in next-four-quarter revenue, representing +26.0% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the CPAY revenue forecast model?

The model has 3.1% training MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $1.4B versus the actual $1.3B.

Corpay, Inc. CPAY

Revenue Intelligence Report • 60 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Corpay, Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $1.3B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $6.3B across the next four quarters (+26.0% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 0.9%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters

$6.33B

+26.0% YoY

SG&A Multiplier

$3.64 per $1

Training Fit

3.1% MAPE

Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $1.35B vs the actual $1.34B — an error of 0.9%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

Note: Corpay, Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q2 FY2026 Period end 2026-06-30	$1.35B	$1.34B	$1.31B–$1.39B	+22.5%	✓ In range
Q3 FY2026 Period end 2026-09-30	$1.44B		$1.38B–$1.50B	+22.8%
Q4 FY2026 Period end 2026-12-31	$1.56B		$1.49B–$1.64B	+25.3%
Q1 FY2027 Period end 2027-03-31	$1.62B		$1.54B–$1.70B	+28.4%
Q2 FY2027 Period end 2027-06-30	$1.70B		$1.61B–$1.80B	+27.2%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Corpay, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar)	0.9889	-1.1%	In line with trend	14
FQ2 (Apr–Jun)	1.0167	+1.7%	In line with trend	13
FQ3 (Jul–Sep)	1.0166	+1.7%	In line with trend	14
FQ4 (Oct–Dec)	1.0041	+0.4%	In line with trend	14

Spending and Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association per $1 of spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 60 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 0.8392x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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