What is CPNG's forecasted revenue?

Coupang, Inc. is forecasted to generate $40.2B in next-four-quarter revenue, representing +13.4% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the CPNG revenue forecast model?

The model has 1.7% training MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $9.7B versus the actual $8.9B.

Coupang, Inc. CPNG

Revenue Intelligence Report • 26 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Coupang, Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $8.9B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $40.2B across the next four quarters (+13.4% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses G&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 9.3%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and G&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters

$40.2B

+13.4% YoY

G&A Elasticity

0.78x

Training Fit

1.7% MAPE

Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $9.68B vs the actual $8.86B — an error of 9.3%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

Note: The current filings use G&A (GeneralAndAdministrativeExpense). Spending estimates refer to this expense measure, not separately reported SG&A.

Note: Coupang, Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q2 FY2026 Period end 2026-06-30	$9.68B	$8.86B	$9.25B–$10.12B	+13.5%	✗ Outside range
Q3 FY2026 Period end 2026-09-30	$10.38B		$9.75B–$11.05B	+12.0%
Q4 FY2026 Period end 2026-12-31	$9.41B		$8.71B–$10.16B	+6.5%
Q1 FY2027 Period end 2027-03-31	$9.36B		$8.57B–$10.24B	+10.1%
Q2 FY2027 Period end 2027-06-30	$11.08B		$10.03B–$12.23B	+25.1%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Coupang, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar)	0.9975	-0.2%	In line with trend	6
FQ2 (Apr–Jun)	0.9879	-1.2%	In line with trend	5
FQ3 (Jul–Sep)	1.02	+2.0%	In line with trend	5
FQ4 (Oct–Dec)	0.996	-0.4%	In line with trend	6

Spending and Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 26 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current G&A elasticity: 0.3284x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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