What is CPRT's forecasted revenue?

Copart, Inc. is forecasted to generate $4.78B in next-four-quarter revenue, representing +2.5% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the CPRT revenue forecast model?

The model has 4.0% training MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $1.2B versus the actual $1.2B.

Copart, Inc. CPRT

Revenue Intelligence Report • 57 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-07-31

Copart, Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $1.2B for the period ending 2026-07-31. The model projects $4.8B across the next four quarters (+2.5% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses G&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 2.7%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The GAM forecast is based on reported revenue and G&A data through 2026-07-31. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters

$4.78B

+2.5% YoY

G&A Elasticity

-0.20x

Training Fit

4.0% MAPE

Retrospective holdout (Q4 FY2026): The model predicted $1.18B vs the actual $1.15B — an error of 2.7%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

Note: The current filings use G&A (GeneralAndAdministrativeExpense). Spending estimates refer to this expense measure, not separately reported SG&A.

⚠ Model limitation: One or more estimated spending associations are negative. These observational coefficients do not establish a causal return on spending.

Note: Copart, Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q4 FY2026 Period end 2026-07-31	$1.18B	$1.15B	$1.03B–$1.36B	+5.2%	✓ In range
Q1 FY2027 Period end 2026-10-31	$1.19B		$1.03B–$1.37B	+3.1%
Q2 FY2027 Period end 2027-01-31	$1.19B		$1.02B–$1.40B	+6.4%
Q3 FY2027 Period end 2027-04-30	$1.20B		$1.01B–$1.42B	-3.2%
Q4 FY2027 Period end 2027-07-31	$1.20B		$990.5M–$1.45B	+4.1%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Copart, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Aug–Oct)	0.9861	-1.4%	In line with trend	14
FQ2 (Nov–Jan)	1.0005	+0.1%	In line with trend	14
FQ3 (Feb–Apr)	1.0489	+4.9%	+4.9% above trend	14
FQ4 (May–Jul)	0.972	-2.8%	In line with trend	14

Spending and Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 57 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current G&A elasticity: 0.0409x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

Enhanced forecast: The time-varying model (GAM) was selected using training fit, before evaluating the withheld quarter. Its holdout error is 2.7%.

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