What is CRDO's forecasted revenue?

Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd is forecasted to generate $3.73B in next-four-quarter revenue, representing +134.6% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the CRDO revenue forecast model?

The model has 11.2% training MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $0.5B versus the actual $0.5B.

Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd CRDO

Revenue Intelligence Report • 23 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-08-01

Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd's latest quarterly revenue is $479M for the period ending 2026-08-01. The model projects $3.7B across the next four quarters (+134.6% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 0.2%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-08-01. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters

$3.73B

+134.6% YoY

R&D Elasticity

-1.21x

SG&A Elasticity

1.41x

Training Fit

11.2% MAPE

Retrospective holdout (Q1 FY2027): The model predicted $479.8M vs the actual $479.0M — an error of 0.2%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

⚠ Model limitation: One or more estimated spending associations are negative. These observational coefficients do not establish a causal return on spending.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q1 FY2027 Period end 2026-08-01	$479.8M	$479.0M	$370.8M–$620.7M	+115.1%	✓ In range
Q2 FY2027 Period end 2026-11-01	$509.3M		$353.8M–$733.1M	+90.0%
Q3 FY2027 Period end 2027-02-01	$783.4M		$501.4M–$1.22B	+92.5%
Q4 FY2027 Period end 2027-05-01	$1.17B		$699.7M–$1.96B	+168.0%
Q1 FY2028 Period end 2027-08-01	$1.27B		$713.3M–$2.26B	+164.9%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (May–Jul)	1.0436	+4.4%	+4.4% above trend	4
FQ2 (Aug–Oct)	1.0303	+3.0%	+3.0% above trend	5
FQ3 (Nov–Jan)	1.0843	+8.4%	+8.4% above trend	5
FQ4 (Feb–Apr)	0.9014	-9.9%	-9.9% below trend	5

Spending and Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 23 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 0.8573x • R&D elasticity: 1.4054x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

Want this analysis for your portfolio?

I build custom revenue intelligence reports for investors and companies using SEC filing data, econometric modeling, and AI-powered insights.

Get in Touch