What is CRS's forecasted revenue?

Carpenter Technology Corp is forecasted to generate $3.15B in next-four-quarter revenue, representing +0.8% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the CRS revenue forecast model?

The model has 6.0% training MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $0.8B versus the actual $0.9B.

Carpenter Technology Corp CRS

Revenue Intelligence Report • 68 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Carpenter Technology Corp's latest quarterly revenue is $851M for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $3.1B across the next four quarters (+0.8% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 4.3%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters

$3.15B

+0.8% YoY

SG&A Multiplier

$12.82 per $1

Training Fit

6.0% MAPE

Retrospective holdout (Q4 FY2026): The model predicted $814.3M vs the actual $851.0M — an error of 4.3%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

Note: Carpenter Technology Corp does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q4 FY2026 Period end 2026-06-30	$814.3M	$851.0M	$736.6M–$892.1M	+7.8%	✓ In range
Q1 FY2027 Period end 2026-09-30	$769.7M		$659.7M–$879.7M	+4.9%
Q2 FY2027 Period end 2026-12-31	$776.9M		$642.2M–$911.6M	+6.7%
Q3 FY2027 Period end 2027-03-31	$809.1M		$653.6M–$964.6M	-0.3%
Q4 FY2027 Period end 2027-06-30	$793.2M		$619.3M–$967.1M	-6.8%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Carpenter Technology Corp's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Jul–Sep)	0.9356	-6.4%	-6.4% below trend	16
FQ2 (Oct–Dec)	1.0135	+1.3%	In line with trend	16
FQ3 (Jan–Mar)	1.006	+0.6%	In line with trend	16
FQ4 (Apr–Jun)	1.0243	+2.4%	In line with trend	15

Spending and Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association per $1 of spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 68 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 0.5787x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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