Cintas Corporation CTAS

Revenue Intelligence Report • 69 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-08-31

Cintas Corporation's latest quarterly revenue is $3.0B for the period ending 2026-08-31. The model projects $12.6B across the next four quarters (+8.9% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 1.1%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-08-31. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$12.6B
+8.9% YoY
SG&A Multiplier
$2.75 per $1
Training Fit
1.6% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q1 FY2027): The model predicted $2.98B vs the actual $3.01B — an error of 1.1%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
Note: Cintas Corporation does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

CTAS Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2026-08-31		 $2.98B $3.01B $2.91B–$3.05B +9.7% ✓ In range
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2026-11-30		 $3.03B $2.93B–$3.13B +8.3%
Q3 FY2027
Period end 2027-02-28		 $3.13B $3.00B–$3.25B +10.1%
Q4 FY2027
Period end 2027-05-31		 $3.17B $3.03B–$3.31B +9.1%
Q1 FY2028
Period end 2027-08-31		 $3.26B $3.10B–$3.42B +8.2%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Cintas Corporation's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Jun–Aug) 0.9911 -0.9% In line with trend 16
FQ2 (Sep–Nov) 1.0083 +0.8% In line with trend 16
FQ3 (Dec–Feb) 0.9995 -0.0% In line with trend 16
FQ4 (Mar–May) 1.0071 +0.7% In line with trend 16

Spending and Revenue

CTAS Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association per $1 of spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 69 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 0.7679x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: ARDL; spending associations: ARDL (linear) with 69 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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