Dick's Sporting Goods, Inc. DKS
Revenue Intelligence Report • 55 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
Dick's Sporting Goods, Inc. has a forecasted full-year revenue of $14B, a -5.5% year-over-year change, based on 55 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include SG&A ($4.01 per $1). The ARDL model achieves strong accuracy at 3.8% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
The econometric model achieves strong accuracy (3.8% MAPE), suggesting Dick's Sporting Goods, Inc.'s revenue trajectory is well-characterized by its spending patterns. Each $1 of SG&A spending generates $4.01 in revenue, reflecting strong commercial efficiency.
Next FY Revenue
$14.1B
-5.5% YoY
SG&A Multiplier
$4.01 per $1
Model Accuracy
3.8% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $3.3B vs the actual $4.2B — an error of 20.5%.
Note:
Dick's Sporting Goods, Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.
Investor insight:
Actual revenue ($4.2B) came in 20% above the spending-based forecast ($3.3B). This suggests that Dick's Sporting Goods, Inc.'s recent revenue growth is driven significantly by external demand factors — such as market pricing, product cycle tailwinds, or structural demand shifts — beyond what its R&D and SG&A spending alone would predict.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $3.3B | $4.2B | $3.1B – $3.5B | +8.4% | ✗ Outside range |
| Q1 2026 | $3.5B | $3.2B – $3.8B | -11.1% | ||
| Q2 2026 | $3.6B | $3.3B – $4.0B | +14.0% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $3.5B | $3.0B – $3.9B | -5.1% | ||
| Q4 2026 | $3.5B | $3.1B – $4.0B | -15.6% |
How Spending Drives Revenue
Reading this chart:
Each line shows the cumulative revenue generated per $1 spent over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments mature.
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