What is DKS's forecasted revenue?

Dick's Sporting Goods, Inc. is forecasted to generate $30.2B in next-four-quarter revenue, representing +43.0% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the DKS revenue forecast model?

The model has 4.4% training MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $5.7B versus the actual $5.6B.

Dick's Sporting Goods, Inc. DKS

Revenue Intelligence Report • 69 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-08-01

Dick's Sporting Goods, Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $5.6B for the period ending 2026-08-01. The model projects $30.2B across the next four quarters (+43.0% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 1.9%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-08-01. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters

$30.2B

+43.0% YoY

SG&A Multiplier

$3.88 per $1

Training Fit

4.4% MAPE

Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2027): The model predicted $5.70B vs the actual $5.59B — an error of 1.9%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

Note: Dick's Sporting Goods, Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q2 FY2027 Period end 2026-08-01	$5.70B	$5.59B	$5.44B–$5.95B	+56.2%	✓ In range
Q3 FY2027 Period end 2026-11-01	$6.16B		$5.80B–$6.52B	+47.9%
Q4 FY2027 Period end 2027-02-01	$8.81B		$8.37B–$9.25B	+41.5%
Q1 FY2028 Period end 2027-05-01	$7.12B		$6.61B–$7.63B	+37.9%
Q2 FY2028 Period end 2027-08-01	$8.15B		$7.58B–$8.71B	+45.8%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Dick's Sporting Goods, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Feb–Apr)	0.9619	-3.8%	-3.8% below trend	16
FQ2 (May–Jul)	0.9774	-2.3%	In line with trend	16
FQ3 (Aug–Oct)	1.0022	+0.2%	In line with trend	16
FQ4 (Nov–Jan)	1.0201	+2.0%	In line with trend	16

Spending and Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association per $1 of spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 69 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 1.033x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

Want this analysis for your portfolio?

I build custom revenue intelligence reports for investors and companies using SEC filing data, econometric modeling, and AI-powered insights.

Get in Touch