What is DOW's forecasted revenue?

Dow Inc. is forecasted to generate $36.4B in next-four-quarter revenue, representing -7.6% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the DOW revenue forecast model?

The model has 3.1% training MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $9.5B versus the actual $9.8B.

Dow Inc. DOW

Revenue Intelligence Report • 33 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-03-31

Dow Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $9.8B for the period ending 2026-03-31. The model projects $36.4B across the next four quarters (-7.6% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 2.8%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-03-31. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters

$36.4B

-7.6% YoY

SG&A Elasticity

0.34x

Training Fit

3.1% MAPE

Retrospective holdout (Q1 FY2026): The model predicted $9.52B vs the actual $9.79B — an error of 2.8%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

Note: Dow Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q1 FY2026 Period end 2026-03-31	$9.52B	$9.79B	$8.82B–$10.28B	-8.7%	✓ In range
Q2 FY2026 Period end 2026-06-30	$9.33B		$8.37B–$10.40B	-7.7%
Q3 FY2026 Period end 2026-09-30	$9.01B		$7.89B–$10.30B	-9.6%
Q4 FY2026 Period end 2026-12-31	$9.03B		$7.74B–$10.53B	-4.6%
Q1 FY2027 Period end 2027-03-31	$8.98B		$7.56B–$10.66B	-8.3%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Dow Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar)	1.0257	+2.6%	In line with trend	7
FQ2 (Apr–Jun)	0.9933	-0.7%	In line with trend	7
FQ3 (Jul–Sep)	1.0021	+0.2%	In line with trend	7
FQ4 (Oct–Dec)	0.9915	-0.9%	In line with trend	7

Spending and Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 33 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 0.7693x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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