Dynatrace, Inc.

Module 2 of 5

2 · Cost model

Operating costs include cost of revenue plus operating expenses. Their growth responds to simulated revenue growth, recent cost trends and the quarter of the year. Adjusted costs equal revenue less company-reported adjusted operating income. This forecast extrapolates the reported business and has no post-Arize cost observation. Read the outlook scenario before interpreting the EPS gap.

Open full-size chart. Last 12 reported quarters are plotted; all 19 aligned quarters appear below. The vertical line separates reported history from model predictions. Historical model points use earlier quarters only. Shaded ranges are conditional simulations and have not been calibrated to real-world probabilities.

Next target: 2026-12-31

Four-quarter predictions

Module 3 of 5

3 · Earnings model

Each path subtracts operating costs from revenue, then adds the modeled bridge for other income, taxes and common-stockholder deductions. The result is earnings available to common stockholders—the numerator required for EPS. This forecast extrapolates the reported business and has no post-Arize cost observation. Read the outlook scenario before interpreting the EPS gap.

Adjusted earnings use the company’s cash-tax and cash-interest reconciliation, not a standardized GAAP tax rate. Historical tax benefits are retained in actuals and downweighted in the recurring earnings bridge. GAAP common earnings include the exchangeable-note interest addback: $68.222M diluted numerator versus $67.764M net income in Q2 FY2027. The acquisition’s future cost structure is not observed in the fit. Company reconciliation and tax policy.

Open full-size chart. Last 12 reported quarters are plotted; all 19 aligned quarters appear below. The vertical line separates reported history from model predictions. Historical model points use earlier quarters only. Shaded ranges are conditional simulations and have not been calibrated to real-world probabilities.

Next target: 2026-12-31

Four-quarter predictions

Module 4 of 5

4 · Share count model

Weighted-average shares follow a recent trend with uncertainty; potential dilution is modeled separately. Profitable paths use diluted shares. Loss paths use basic shares to avoid treating anti-dilutive securities as EPS dilution. Buybacks, stock compensation and issuance enter through reported share history. Dynatrace’s new exchangeable notes are separated from employee-equity dilution and included for a full quarter in future profitable paths; the $1B buyback authorization is not assumed to be fully executed.

Open full-size chart. Last 12 reported quarters are plotted; all 19 aligned quarters appear below. The vertical line separates reported history from model predictions. Historical model points use earlier quarters only. Shaded ranges are conditional simulations and have not been calibrated to real-world probabilities. The chart shows basic and adjusted diluted shares; the tables also show GAAP diluted shares.

Next target: 2026-12-31

Four-quarter predictions

Module 5 of 5

5 · EPS model

For every simulated path, EPS equals common earnings divided by the matching weighted-average share count. Revenue, costs, below-operating-income items and shares therefore feed the same EPS distribution. GAAP and adjusted measures remain separate.

Open full-size chart. Last 12 reported quarters are plotted; all 19 aligned quarters appear below. The vertical line separates reported history from model predictions. Historical model points use earlier quarters only. Shaded ranges are conditional simulations and have not been calibrated to real-world probabilities.

Next target: 2026-12-31

Adjusted basis is inferred: the vendor’s previous-quarter EPS of $0.54 matches company adjusted EPS, versus GAAP $0.23. The next-quarter comparison is conditional on that basis match. Analyst source.

The vendor reports an analyst EPS range of $0.43 to $0.45 and a revenue range of $591.5M to $602.7M. These describe dispersion among estimates, not probability intervals.

How the new outlook changes the EPS comparison

The beat / in-line / miss fractions below describe the historical-cost model with known note dilution. They do not incorporate Arize’s unreported cost base and must not be read as odds for the post-acquisition earnings report.

The last scenario fixes next-quarter revenue to analyst consensus, operating margin to management’s midpoint ratio (154.5 / 593.5), and diluted shares to 313.5M on profitable paths (basic shares on loss paths). It recomputes the historical earnings bridge at that operating profit. It does not assume management’s EPS or net-income guidance. Its range retains accounting-bridge uncertainty; it omits uncertainty in the fixed guidance assumptions and is not an independently validated EPS forecast. Management’s outlook gives $0.44–$0.45 adjusted EPS.

Conditional surprise scenarios

These percentages are model scenarios, not calibrated odds. Adjusted EPS: model MAE $0.021, last-quarter baseline MAE $0.044; the nominal 80% range covered 7/7 outcomes. These are reconstructed checks, not archived live forecasts. The historical model gives $0.54 adjusted EPS, versus $0.44 analyst consensus. Applying management’s new operating-margin and share assumptions at analyst revenue gives $0.43. The acquisition changes the cost base, so the higher historical-model result does not establish a likely beat. The new regime has no completed backtest.

What would erase the modeled upside?

At consensus EPS, the median break-even adjusted operating-cost level across the simulated revenue, earnings-bridge and share paths is $455.0M, versus a cost-model median of $422.6M. The median cost headroom is $31.8M. Replacing next-quarter revenue with analyst consensus and rerunning the linked cost response produces a conditional adjusted EPS median of $0.50.

Four-quarter predictions

Analysts, realized surprises and market context

Last closing share price: $43.44 on 2026-11-06. Historical market prices.

No verified current event-window options quote is available. Market-implied EPS is not identifiable from the share price or an options move alone. No directional market EPS forecast is presented. An earnings beat can accompany a falling share price when guidance, valuation or other news dominates.

Historical analyst estimates, retrieved 2026-11-08; reported actuals checked against linked company releases. Returns use the prior trading close to the release-day close, exclude dividends, and do not isolate the earnings effect. Dynatrace’s current release was issued before the market opened. Historical expectations can be revised by the vendor. Historical analyst entries are included only after their actual adjusted EPS and revenue match company releases. Current options snippets disagreed with the dates and prices on opened pages; they were not treated as a verified next-earnings forecast.

Does the linked model improve predictions?

Adjusted EPS: model MAE $0.021, last-quarter baseline MAE $0.044; the nominal 80% range covered 7/7 outcomes. These are reconstructed checks, not archived live forecasts. Compare mean absolute error (MAE) with carrying forward the last reported value and with the same quarter a year earlier. Lower is better. The model is not consistently superior across measures and horizons.

Model and source notes

The revenue module supplies 6,000 simulated paths. Accounting equations fit 19 aligned quarters with recency weighting (four-quarter half-life), regularization and robust residuals. The accounting layer uses approximate Gaussian parameter uncertainty and correlated Student-t shocks; it is not a second fully Bayesian fit.

Costs use log changes, revenue growth and seasonal terms. The historical bridge models other income, cash-tax adjustments and common earnings relative to operating profit. No fixed normalized tax rate is imposed for Dynatrace. The separate outlook scenario uses management’s margin and share assumptions and is not fitted to reported acquisition results.

Equity-award dilution is fitted after removing the 10.210M weighted exchangeable-note shares from September 2026. For future profitable paths, 22.365M note shares are added for a full quarter, based on principal × exchange ratio. This assumes notes remain outstanding; share-price-dependent note-hedge and warrant effects are not modeled. Loss paths use basic shares. Component medians need not add or divide to median EPS.

Seven expanding historical origins train on earlier quarters only and produce 22 outcomes across one to four quarters. Revenue is refitted at each origin. Latest filing revisions and reconciled release data remain in history, and model choices were reviewed using these results: this is retrospective validation, not an untouched holdout or point-in-time trading test. All seven training cutoffs precede note issuance. Only the latest reported quarter includes partial-quarter notes, and none includes Arize; these checks cannot validate the full-quarter post-acquisition regime.

80% and 95% ranges are central pointwise simulation ranges. Small, overlapping backtests do not calibrate them. Surprise percentages are conditional simulation fractions, not demonstrated real-world probabilities. A beat means more than $0.01 above consensus; a miss means more than $0.01 below. Everything within ±$0.01 is treated as in line.

Analyst consensus is shown only where the target period and EPS basis can be aligned. No verified analyst cost, common-earnings or share-count forecasts were located; unavailable values stay blank. Management-derived values are scenarios, not independent analyst consensus. Forecast horizons beyond the next quarter have no verified comparable consensus.

Historical consensus is the vendor’s retrospective table retrieved November 8, 2026, not an archive we captured before releases. Actual adjusted EPS and revenue are checked against company releases. Stock returns use the prior close through the release-day close; archived options ranges use the stated expiration. Stock-price moves do not uniquely identify an EPS expectation.

Revenue, adjusted operating income, adjusted net income, adjusted EPS and diluted shares are directly issued company guidance. Adjusted costs are derived from the revenue and operating-income midpoints ($593.5M − $154.5M = $439.0M). The ranges are not probability intervals. No GAAP earnings or EPS guidance was supplied. Company outlook and reconciliation.

Computed 2026-11-08 · 6000 simulated paths · 19 accounting quarters through 2026-09-30 · model version dt-linked-accounting-v1-2026-11-08. Figures are frozen to this research vintage.