Duke Energy Corporation DUK
Revenue Intelligence Report • 68 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
Duke Energy Corporation has a forecasted full-year revenue of $33B, a +3.8% year-over-year change, based on 68 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include SG&A ($1.31 per $1). The ARDL model achieves strong accuracy at 4.4% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
The econometric model achieves strong accuracy (4.4% MAPE), suggesting Duke Energy Corporation's revenue trajectory is well-characterized by its spending patterns. Each $1 of SG&A spending generates $1.31 in revenue, reflecting strong commercial efficiency.
Next FY Revenue
$33.0B
+3.8% YoY
SG&A Multiplier
$1.31 per $1
Model Accuracy
4.4% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $7.9B vs the actual $7.8B — an error of 1.3%.
Note:
Duke Energy Corporation does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $7.9B | $7.8B | $7.2B – $8.5B | +8.8% | ✓ In range |
| Q2 2026 | $8.4B | $7.5B – $9.3B | +2.2% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $7.9B | $6.8B – $9.0B | +7.3% | ||
| Q4 2026 | $8.4B | $7.2B – $9.7B | +0.7% | ||
| Q1 2027 | $8.2B | $6.8B – $9.6B | +5.8% |
How Spending Drives Revenue
Reading this chart:
Each line shows the cumulative revenue generated per $1 spent over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments mature.
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