What is DVN's forecasted revenue?

Devon Energy Corp/De is forecasted to generate $14.3B in next-four-quarter revenue, representing -27.5% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the DVN revenue forecast model?

The model has 23.4% training MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $4.0B versus the actual $7.0B.

Devon Energy Corp/De DVN

Revenue Intelligence Report • 38 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Devon Energy Corp/De's latest quarterly revenue is $7.0B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $14.3B across the next four quarters (-27.5% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses G&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 43.2%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and G&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters

$14.3B

-27.5% YoY

G&A Multiplier

$7.69 per $1

Training Fit

23.4% MAPE

Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $3.98B vs the actual $7.00B — an error of 43.2%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

Note: The current filings use G&A (GeneralAndAdministrativeExpense). Spending estimates refer to this expense measure, not separately reported SG&A.

Note: Devon Energy Corp/De does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Investor insight: Actual revenue ($7.0B) came in 43% above the spending-based forecast ($4.0B). This suggests that Devon Energy Corp/De's recent revenue growth is driven significantly by external demand factors — such as market pricing, product cycle tailwinds, or structural demand shifts — beyond what its R&D and SG&A spending alone would predict.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q2 FY2026 Period end 2026-06-30	$3.98B	$7.00B	$2.71B–$5.25B	-1.7%	✗ Outside range
Q3 FY2026 Period end 2026-09-30	$3.98B		$2.18B–$5.78B	-6.5%
Q4 FY2026 Period end 2026-12-31	$3.67B		$1.47B–$5.88B	-6.8%
Q1 FY2027 Period end 2027-03-31	$3.30B		$753.7M–$5.85B	-26.8%
Q2 FY2027 Period end 2027-06-30	$3.33B		$486.5M–$6.18B	-52.4%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Devon Energy Corp/De's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar)	1.0344	+3.4%	+3.4% above trend	9
FQ2 (Apr–Jun)	0.9602	-4.0%	-4.0% below trend	8
FQ3 (Jul–Sep)	0.9834	-1.7%	In line with trend	8
FQ4 (Oct–Dec)	1.0352	+3.5%	+3.5% above trend	8

Spending and Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association per $1 of spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 38 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current G&A elasticity: -3.2552x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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