What is ESS's forecasted revenue?

Essex Property Trust, Inc. is forecasted to generate $7.19M in next-four-quarter revenue, representing -22.7% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the ESS revenue forecast model?

The model has 51.4% training MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $2.2M versus the actual $2.3M.

Essex Property Trust, Inc. ESS

Revenue Intelligence Report • 69 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Essex Property Trust, Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $2M for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $7M across the next four quarters (-22.7% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses G&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 6.5%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The GAM forecast is based on reported revenue and G&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters

$7.19M

-22.7% YoY

G&A Elasticity

-3.66x

Training Fit

51.4% MAPE

Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $2.2M vs the actual $2.3M — an error of 6.5%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

Note: The current filings use G&A (GeneralAndAdministrativeExpense). Spending estimates refer to this expense measure, not separately reported SG&A.

⚠ Model limitation: One or more estimated spending associations are negative. These observational coefficients do not establish a causal return on spending.

Note: Essex Property Trust, Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q2 FY2026 Period end 2026-06-30	$2.2M	$2.3M	$333.7K–$14.1M	-2.5%	✓ In range
Q3 FY2026 Period end 2026-09-30	$2.0M		$265.7K–$14.7M	-16.4%
Q4 FY2026 Period end 2026-12-31	$1.7M		$201.2K–$15.0M	-24.5%
Q1 FY2027 Period end 2027-03-31	$1.6M		$151.2K–$17.6M	-29.4%
Q2 FY2027 Period end 2027-06-30	$1.8M		$113.7K–$29.8M	-20.6%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Essex Property Trust, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar)	0.9856	-1.4%	In line with trend	17
FQ2 (Apr–Jun)	0.9937	-0.6%	In line with trend	17
FQ3 (Jul–Sep)	1.0056	+0.6%	In line with trend	17
FQ4 (Oct–Dec)	0.991	-0.9%	In line with trend	17

Spending and Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 69 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current G&A elasticity: -0.4299x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

Enhanced forecast: The time-varying model (GAM) was selected using training fit, before evaluating the withheld quarter. Its holdout error is -6.5%.

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