What is ET's forecasted revenue?

Energy Transfer Lp is forecasted to generate $76.3B in FY revenue, representing -10.8% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the ET revenue forecast model?

The ARDL model achieves 15.4% MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $23B versus the actual $25B.

Energy Transfer Lp ET

Revenue Intelligence Report • 66 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15

Revenue is forecast to fall about 11% year over year to roughly $68 billion, as Energy Transfer faces softer near-term midstream volumes. Our econometric model shows SG&A elasticity around 1.36x, so a 1% SG&A rise is associated with about a 1.36% revenue gain; time-varying coefficients have moved higher, from 0.06x to 0.53x, signaling growing SG&A leverage. Forecast reliability is mixed: MAPE runs 15.4%, and in an out-of-sample holdout the model predicted about $23B versus $25B realized—a roughly 10% miss. Key risk: further volume softness or regulatory shifts could prolong the revenue decline and undermine the SG&A-driven topline scenario.

Investment Thesis

At 15.4% MAPE, the model captures Energy Transfer Lp's broad revenue trajectory, though quarterly variability suggests sensitivity to external factors. Sales & marketing spend shows a 1.36x elasticity, suggesting effective go-to-market execution.

Next FY Revenue

$76.3B

-10.8% YoY

SG&A Elasticity

1.36x

Model Accuracy

15.4% MAPE

Holdout validation: The model predicted $23B vs the actual $25B — an error of 10.2%.

Note: Energy Transfer Lp does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q4 2025	$23B	$25B	$12B – $43B	+16.4%	✓ In range
Q2 2026	$19B		$9.5B – $38B	-9.0%
Q3 2026	$18B		$8.0B – $39B	-7.5%
Q4 2026	$18B		$7.6B – $43B	-9.6%
Q1 2027	$21B		$8.4B – $54B	-15.9%

How Spending Drives Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.

Spending Efficiency Over Time

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks how the link between spending and revenue has evolved over 66 quarters. A falling elasticity means the company needs less incremental spending to sustain growth — a hallmark of operating leverage from platform scale, pricing power, or recurring-revenue streams. A rising elasticity suggests the company is becoming more spending-dependent.
Current SG&A elasticity: 0.5331x

Enhanced forecast: The time-varying model (GAM) outperformed the fixed-coefficient ARDL on holdout validation (-10.2% error vs ARDL, R² = 0.909), so this report uses the GAM for its quarterly forecasts.

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