What is ET's forecasted revenue?

Energy Transfer Lp is forecasted to generate $126.1B in next-four-quarter revenue, representing +17.4% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the ET revenue forecast model?

The model has 15.7% training MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $30B versus the actual $34B.

Energy Transfer Lp ET

Revenue Intelligence Report • 69 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Energy Transfer Lp's latest quarterly revenue is $34.3B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $126B across the next four quarters (+17.4% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 11.7%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters

$126.1B

+17.4% YoY

SG&A Elasticity

1.48x

Training Fit

15.7% MAPE

Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $30.31B vs the actual $34.33B — an error of 11.7%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

Note: Energy Transfer Lp does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q2 FY2026 Period end 2026-06-30	$30.31B	$34.33B	$20.17B–$45.56B	+57.5%	✓ In range
Q3 FY2026 Period end 2026-09-30	$31.83B		$17.89B–$56.63B	+59.5%
Q4 FY2026 Period end 2026-12-31	$31.90B		$15.75B–$64.60B	+26.0%
Q1 FY2027 Period end 2027-03-31	$30.64B		$13.57B–$69.20B	+10.3%
Q2 FY2027 Period end 2027-06-30	$31.69B		$12.75B–$78.79B	-7.7%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Energy Transfer Lp's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar)	0.9722	-2.8%	In line with trend	16
FQ2 (Apr–Jun)	0.9079	-9.2%	-9.2% below trend	16
FQ3 (Jul–Sep)	1.083	+8.3%	+8.3% above trend	16
FQ4 (Oct–Dec)	0.9572	-4.3%	-4.3% below trend	16

Spending and Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 69 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 0.6761x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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