What is EXAS's forecasted revenue?

Exact Sciences Corp is forecasted to generate $3.80B in FY revenue, representing +17.1% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the EXAS revenue forecast model?

The ARDL model achieves 2884.2% MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $0.9B versus the actual $0.9B.

Exact Sciences Corp EXAS

Revenue Intelligence Report • 59 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15

Latest quarterly revenue is $878 million, supported by a dataset spanning 59 quarters. In the model, SG&A spending yields a positive long-run revenue impact of $1.42 per $1 spent, while R&D spending yields a negative long-run impact of $-3.71 per $1 spent, indicating SG&A efficiency as the primary long-run driver of revenue. A holdout test shows the model predicting $0.9B against actual $0.9B, a 3.0% error, offering credibility for near-term projections. The FY revenue forecast is $3.8B, up 17.1% year over year, signaling solid top-line growth even as ROI dynamics emphasize SG&A investments over R&D.

Investment Thesis

At 2884.2% MAPE, the model captures Exact Sciences Corp's broad revenue trajectory, though quarterly variability suggests sensitivity to external factors. Each $1 of SG&A spending generates $1.42 in revenue, reflecting strong commercial efficiency.

Next FY Revenue

$3.80B

+17.1% YoY

R&D Multiplier

$-3.71 per $1

SG&A Multiplier

$1.42 per $1

Model Accuracy

2884.2% MAPE

Holdout validation: The model predicted $0.9B vs the actual $0.9B — an error of 3.0%.

⚠ Model limitation: This company shows negative spending multipliers, meaning increases in spending have not directly translated into revenue growth. This typically occurs with commodity-driven companies or hypergrowth companies.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q4 2025	$0.9B	$0.9B	$0.8B – $0.9B	+19.5%	✓ In range
Q2 2026	$0.9B		$0.8B – $0.9B	+25.9%
Q3 2026	$0.9B		$0.9B – $1.0B	+16.7%
Q4 2026	$1.0B		$0.9B – $1.0B	+13.0%
Q1 2027	$1.0B		$0.9B – $1.1B	+14.5%

How Spending Drives Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue generated per $1 spent over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments mature.

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