What is EXE's forecasted revenue?

Expand Energy Corporation is forecasted to generate $8.09B in next-four-quarter revenue, representing -40.5% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the EXE revenue forecast model?

The model has 32.4% training MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $1.7B versus the actual $3.0B.

Expand Energy Corporation EXE

Revenue Intelligence Report • 21 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Expand Energy Corporation's latest quarterly revenue is $3.0B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $8.1B across the next four quarters (-40.5% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses G&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 40.9%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and G&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters

$8.09B

-40.5% YoY

G&A Elasticity

-0.12x

Training Fit

32.4% MAPE

Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $1.75B vs the actual $2.96B — an error of 40.9%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

Note: The current filings use G&A (GeneralAndAdministrativeExpense). Spending estimates refer to this expense measure, not separately reported SG&A.

⚠ Model limitation: One or more estimated spending associations are negative. These observational coefficients do not establish a causal return on spending.

Note: Expand Energy Corporation does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Investor insight: Actual revenue ($3.0B) came in 41% above the spending-based forecast ($1.7B). This suggests that Expand Energy Corporation's recent revenue growth is driven significantly by external demand factors — such as market pricing, product cycle tailwinds, or structural demand shifts — beyond what its R&D and SG&A spending alone would predict.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q2 FY2026 Period end 2026-06-30	$1.75B	$2.96B	$845.6M–$3.62B	-52.6%	✓ In range
Q3 FY2026 Period end 2026-09-30	$3.01B		$1.08B–$8.41B	+1.4%
Q4 FY2026 Period end 2026-12-31	$1.81B		$513.9M–$6.37B	-44.7%
Q1 FY2027 Period end 2027-03-31	$2.27B		$530.1M–$9.69B	-48.4%
Q2 FY2027 Period end 2027-06-30	$1.01B		$198.5M–$5.12B	-66.0%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Expand Energy Corporation's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar)	1.1427	+14.3%	+14.3% above trend	4
FQ2 (Apr–Jun)	0.8428	-15.7%	-15.7% below trend	4
FQ3 (Jul–Sep)	0.9961	-0.4%	In line with trend	4
FQ4 (Oct–Dec)	1.183	+18.3%	+18.3% above trend	4

Spending and Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 21 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current G&A elasticity: -2.6843x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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