Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. EXPD

Revenue Intelligence Report • 70 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15

Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. has a forecasted full-year revenue of $14B, a +23.9% year-over-year change, based on 70 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include SG&A (elasticity 1.16x). The ARDL model achieves strong accuracy at 4.9% MAPE.

Investment Thesis

The econometric model achieves strong accuracy (4.9% MAPE), suggesting Expeditors International of Washington, Inc.'s revenue trajectory is well-characterized by its spending patterns. Sales & marketing spend shows a 1.16x elasticity, suggesting effective go-to-market execution.

Next FY Revenue
$13.7B
+23.9% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
1.16x
Model Accuracy
4.9% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $3.1B vs the actual $2.9B — an error of 8.5%.
Note: Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.

Revenue Forecast

EXPD Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q4 2025 $3.1B $2.9B $2.8B – $3.5B +4.9% ✓ In range
Q2 2026 $3.2B $2.7B – $3.8B +21.6%
Q3 2026 $3.4B $2.7B – $4.1B +26.8%
Q4 2026 $3.5B $2.8B – $4.4B +20.5%
Q1 2027 $3.6B $2.8B – $4.7B +26.7%

How Spending Drives Revenue

EXPD Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. Model: ARDL (log-log) with 70 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.