What is EXR's forecasted revenue?

Extra Space Storage Inc. is forecasted to generate $130.0M in next-four-quarter revenue, representing -3.8% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the EXR revenue forecast model?

The model has 35.7% training MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $33M versus the actual $35M.

Extra Space Storage Inc. EXR

Revenue Intelligence Report • 38 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Extra Space Storage Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $35M for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $130M across the next four quarters (-3.8% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses G&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 6.7%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The GAM forecast is based on reported revenue and G&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters

$130.0M

-3.8% YoY

G&A Elasticity

1.55x

Training Fit

35.7% MAPE

Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $32.6M vs the actual $34.9M — an error of 6.7%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

Note: The current filings use G&A (GeneralAndAdministrativeExpense). Spending estimates refer to this expense measure, not separately reported SG&A.

Note: Extra Space Storage Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q2 FY2026 Period end 2026-06-30	$32.6M	$34.9M	$7.8M–$135.3M	+1.7%	✓ In range
Q3 FY2026 Period end 2026-09-30	$34.1M		$6.9M–$167.9M	+4.8%
Q4 FY2026 Period end 2026-12-31	$30.1M		$4.4M–$208.3M	-11.4%
Q1 FY2027 Period end 2027-03-31	$33.6M		$4.9M–$230.2M	-0.4%
Q2 FY2027 Period end 2027-06-30	$32.3M		$3.7M–$278.4M	-7.6%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Extra Space Storage Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar)	0.9965	-0.3%	In line with trend	10
FQ2 (Apr–Jun)	0.9591	-4.1%	-4.1% below trend	9
FQ3 (Jul–Sep)	1.0767	+7.7%	+7.7% above trend	9
FQ4 (Oct–Dec)	1.0376	+3.8%	+3.8% above trend	9

Spending and Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 38 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current G&A elasticity: -0.7207x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

Enhanced forecast: The time-varying model (GAM) was selected using training fit, before evaluating the withheld quarter. Its holdout error is -6.7%.

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