Fastenal Co FAST

Revenue Intelligence Report • 73 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Fastenal Co's latest quarterly revenue is $2.4B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $9.8B across the next four quarters (+12.4% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 1.1%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$9.84B
+12.4% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
1.30x
Training Fit
1.9% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $2.36B vs the actual $2.39B — an error of 1.1%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
Note: Fastenal Co does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

FAST Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q2 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-30		 $2.36B $2.39B $2.24B–$2.48B +13.4% ✓ In range
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-09-30		 $2.43B $2.26B–$2.61B +13.9%
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-12-31		 $2.33B $2.13B–$2.54B +14.8%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-31		 $2.46B $2.22B–$2.71B +11.6%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2027-06-30		 $2.62B $2.35B–$2.93B +9.9%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Fastenal Co's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar) 1.0094 +0.9% In line with trend 18
FQ2 (Apr–Jun) 0.9945 -0.5% In line with trend 17
FQ3 (Jul–Sep) 1.0105 +1.1% In line with trend 17
FQ4 (Oct–Dec) 0.9764 -2.4% In line with trend 17

Spending and Revenue

FAST Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 73 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 0.7742x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: ARDL; spending associations: ARDL (log-log) with 73 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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