What is FLEX's forecasted revenue?

Flex Ltd. is forecasted to generate $30.4B in next-four-quarter revenue, representing +3.9% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the FLEX revenue forecast model?

The model has 4.2% training MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $7.0B versus the actual $7.9B.

Flex Ltd. FLEX

Revenue Intelligence Report • 47 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-26

Flex Ltd.'s latest quarterly revenue is $7.9B for the period ending 2026-06-26. The model projects $30.4B across the next four quarters (+3.9% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 11.3%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-26. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters

$30.4B

+3.9% YoY

SG&A Multiplier

$16.83 per $1

Training Fit

4.2% MAPE

Retrospective holdout (Q1 FY2027): The model predicted $7.03B vs the actual $7.93B — an error of 11.3%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

Note: Flex Ltd. does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q1 FY2027 Period end 2026-06-26	$7.03B	$7.93B	$6.32B–$7.74B	+6.9%	✗ Outside range
Q2 FY2027 Period end 2026-09-26	$7.32B		$6.32B–$8.32B	+7.6%
Q3 FY2027 Period end 2026-12-26	$7.56B		$6.34B–$8.78B	+7.1%
Q4 FY2027 Period end 2027-03-26	$7.94B		$6.53B–$9.35B	+6.2%
Q1 FY2028 Period end 2027-06-26	$7.60B		$6.02B–$9.17B	-4.2%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Flex Ltd.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Apr–Jun)	1.0039	+0.4%	In line with trend	10
FQ2 (Jul–Sep)	0.9991	-0.1%	In line with trend	10
FQ3 (Oct–Dec)	1.017	+1.7%	In line with trend	11
FQ4 (Jan–Mar)	0.9711	-2.9%	In line with trend	11

Spending and Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association per $1 of spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 47 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 0.5027x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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