Flutter Entertainment Plc FLUT
Revenue Intelligence Report • 12 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
Flutter Entertainment Plc has a forecasted full-year revenue of $3.7B, a -77.3% year-over-year change, based on 12 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include SG&A ($5493.42 per $1). The ARDL model achieves strong accuracy at 0.7% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
Our ARDL model tracks Flutter Entertainment Plc's revenue with exceptional precision (0.7% MAPE), indicating highly predictable cash flows. Each $1 of SG&A spending generates $5493.42 in revenue, reflecting strong commercial efficiency.
Next FY Revenue
$3.71B
-77.3% YoY
R&D Multiplier
$-65579.79 per $1
SG&A Multiplier
$5493.42 per $1
Model Accuracy
0.7% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $4.0B vs the actual $4.7B — an error of 16.0%.
⚠ Model limitation:
This company shows negative spending multipliers, meaning increases in spending have not directly translated into revenue growth. This typically occurs with commodity-driven companies or hypergrowth companies.
Investor insight:
Actual revenue ($4.7B) came in 16% above the spending-based forecast ($4.0B). This suggests that Flutter Entertainment Plc's recent revenue growth is driven significantly by external demand factors — such as market pricing, product cycle tailwinds, or structural demand shifts — beyond what its R&D and SG&A spending alone would predict.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $4.0B | $4.7B | $3.9B – $4.0B | +5.0% | ✗ Outside range |
| Q2 2026 | $2.3B | $2.3B – $2.4B | -36.1% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $1.4B | $1.3B – $1.5B | -67.3% | ||
| Q4 2026 | $0.0B | $-3.6B – $-3.4B | -100.0% | ||
| Q1 2027 | $0.0B | $-9.6B – $-9.4B | -100.0% |
How Spending Drives Revenue
Reading this chart:
Each line shows the cumulative revenue generated per $1 spent over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments mature.
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